Montana Republican Congressman Ryan Zinke, whose district includes Missoula and much of the rest of western Montana, will not run for re-election, he announced on Monday, citing health concerns.
Zinke’s decision may create an opening for one of several Democrats who had already lined up for an uphill battle against the multi-term incumbent. The winner of the Democratic primary will now face one of at least three Republicans who launched campaigns immediately following Zinke’s announcement, each looking to keep a reddish district in Republican hands and elevate their own profiles in the crowded state GOP.
Within hours, talk show host Aaron Flint had emerged as the clear frontrunner — backed by President Trump, Zinke himself and a roster of Montana’s top Republicans.
In a letter announcing the move, Zinke said he has fought on the “front lines defending freedom, faith, family, and the values that make America and Montana strong.”
Zinke, a former Navy SEAL, said he had undergone multiple surgeries related to his military service, and faces more operations in the future. He did not specify the nature of the surgeries but said his injuries were non-life threatening.
“My judgment and experience tell me it is better for Montana and America to have full-time representation in Congress than run the risk of uncertain absence and missed votes,” he said.
“It is better for Montana and America to have full-time representation in Congress than run the risk of uncertain absence and missed votes.”
The race to replace Zinke
Over the last several months, four Democrats have announced challenges to Zinke. Now, they’ll be running for an open seat, which is almost always easier than running against an incumbent. Zinke, despite a political career dotted with ethics investigations and other controversies, has proven a resilient politician, fending off primary challengers and winning tight elections for the state’s western U.S. House district in 2022 and 2024, both against Missoula attorney Monica Tranel.
President Donald Trump carried the district by more than 10 points in 2024, but former Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester won the district by about a point in his losing re-election bid that same year. As one prominent election analyst put it, it’s a “reach” seat Democrats can “dream on” this year. Others are more optimistic. The district, drawn as part of statewide redistricting cycle in 2021, includes Democratic strongholds like Missoula, Butte and Bozeman, but also deeply Republican areas like the Bitterroot and Flathead valleys, which contribute to its overall Republican tilt. The district also covers the Flathead and Blackfeet Indian reservations.
The Democrats running for the seat, who generally said Zinke’s decision to step down is an indication of their strength heading toward November, include:
- Ryan Busse, a former firearms executive and author who lives in the Flathead and mounted an unsuccessful run for governor in 2024. He’s originally from Kansas. “Just weeks after we got into this race, we already scared Ryan Zinke right out,” Busse said in a video on social media. “Truth is, it wasn’t just me. The voters here, they hate the MAGA agenda.”
- Russ Cleveland, a Navy veteran and childcare company founder who grew up in the Bitterroot but now ranches near St. Regis. “I have been in this since April, before anyone else thought this was winnable or that Zinke was beatable,” he said on Instagram. “He intentionally left me off his last poll results, not because he didn’t know who I was, but because it was the first time he was predicted to lose. Republicans can beat every other candidate in this Democratic primary.”
- Sam Forstag, a former lobbyist, wildland firefighter and union organizer who lives in Missoula. He’s originally from Ohio. Zinke “saw what was coming and it was all of us,” Forstag said in a video on social media. “That’s good news for Montana and for the country.”
- Matt Rains, another military veteran who later worked as a photojournalist and chief of staff for the Montana Farmers Union. He grew up and ranches near Simms. He accused Zinke of “leaving Montanans in the midst of an affordability crisis.”
Several of the candidates have said internal polling shows them defeating Zinke in a hypothetical matchup. That said, other polling — albeit from a Republican firm — shows Zinke easily beating both Busse and Forstag, though the other two candidates weren’t included. (I would look at any poll this early in the election with a healthy dose of skepticism. Moreover, Montana, owing to its relatively small, widely distributed population, is a tough state to poll reliably.)
Zinke’s retirement announcement almost immediately generated campaign launches from three Republicans of varying renown. The candidates were ready with videos and prepared statements, suggesting a certain amount of foreknowledge of Zinke’s plans among Montana Republicans. That said, registration for the Republican primary closes March 4, leaving little time for anyone who wasn’t already planning to run for Congress to enter the race.
Perhaps the most prominent — especially outside the liberal confines of Missoula — is Flint, whose Montana Talks show is very influential among conservatives across the state. He previously lived in Billings, but appears to have moved to the western district, according to his LinkedIn profile — though residency isn’t actually a requirement for candidacy. Flint seems to be the anointed candidate. Aside from Trump (who described him as a “MAGA Warrior”) and Zinke, Flint has been endorsed by Gov. Greg Gianforte, Sen. Tim Sheehy, Eastern Montana Congressman Troy Downing and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen.
“After the first year of this administration, we’re seeing some good things start to happen out of Washington,” Flint said in a statement. “But we know if Democrats take back Congress, they’ll put their hand right back in your tip jar and tax your social security. They want to force their values on us. … I’m running for Congress to stop them in their tracks.”
But he won’t be able to waltz through the primary. Also in the race is current Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, as well as former Flathead Valley lawmaker, orthopedic surgeon and perennial candidate Al Olszewski.
“Montana deserves a fighter who delivers America First leadership, lower costs, secure borders, and unleashed energy. No career politicians. Just results,” Jacobsen wrote on Facebook. “Are you with me?”
While Jacobsen doesn’t have the star-studded endorsement list, she did outperform all other Republicans — including Trump — in raw votes in 2024, per Montana Free Press.
The man who rode in on a horse
Zinke began his political career in the 2000s as a relatively moderate, Prius-driving Republican state lawmaker who fashioned himself a “Teddy Roosevelt conservative.” He was a star player on Whitefish High School’s championship 1979 football team and went on to play at the University of Oregon. He then spent more than two decades as a Navy SEAL.
His political star rose as the GOP’s right flank took over, winning his first race to represent what was then Montana’s only U.S. House district in 2014. He won re-election in 2016, but soon left to take a position as U.S. Secretary of the Interior in the first Trump administration — making him the first Montanan to hold a cabinet-level job. His departure from Congress led to a special election won by former tech executive Greg Gianforte — a race that infamously featured Gianforte, now Montana’s governor, assaulting a reporter.
While Zinke’s tenure as Interior Secretary began with him riding a horse to work, he left the job with less fanfare. Despite his pro-public lands politics earlier in his career, he and Trump tried to shrink national monuments, roll back environmental protections and unleash oil drilling. And he was the subject of 18 ethics investigations concerning everything from Whitefish real estate deals to improper political advocacy while in office. He left his post in late 2018. Later in his career, lingering questions about the strength of his Montana ties became more intense when Politico reported his wife Lola had declared a house she inherited from her parents in Santa Barbara as her primary residence.
But he still won multiple House races despite accusations of inadequate conservatism from primary challengers and MAGAfied corruption from Democrats, making him one of the more durable state politicians of the last decade.
“Service is a duty that I will always hold sacred, and I am grateful for the opportunity to make a difference,” he said in his statement.
